<\/p>\n
As the world\u2019s attention has been fixated on Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and the inevitable global consequences, ordinary civilians across the Middle East have faced a consumer crisis following skyrocketing prices of oil, wheat, and other commodities. Yemen in particular looks set to endure harsh ramifications from the Ukraine conflict.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Meanwhile, Russia\u2019s increased expansionist vision may also have geopolitical implications for Yemen, as it could eventually take a more interventionist stance in the country. After all, Moscow was the patron power of South Yemen until 1990, when the People\u2019s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) was a Marxist ally of the Soviet Union when it controlled south Yemen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Since 2015, Russia has become a dominant powerbroker in the Middle East and North Africa, after intervening to prop up Bashar al-Assad\u2019s regime in the Syrian civil war. In the Gulf region, it has expanded its military ties and cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while it has maintained lines of communication with various Yemeni actors.<\/span><\/p>\n As Vladimir Putin evidently seeks to revive the Soviet Union\u2019s former heritage, the Ukraine crisis could ultimately raise the prospect of Russia supporting Yemen\u2019s pro-southern independence movement, the Southern Transitional Council (STC). While many older members of the south Yemeni elite still maintained contacts with Russia, <\/span>STC leaders<\/span><\/a> have often tried to boost relations with Moscow.<\/span><\/p>\n Soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, the World Food Program (WFP) <\/span>warned<\/span><\/a> the crisis could likely further increase fuel and food prices, especially grains, in import-dependent Yemen where prices have soared in many areas in the past year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n According to a <\/span>report<\/span><\/a> by the Middle East Institute, Ukraine exports around 95 percent of its grain through the Black Sea while over 50 percent of its wheat exports went to the Middle East and North Africa in 2020. Thus, the conflict in Ukraine has raised <\/span>wheat prices<\/span><\/a> to unprecedented high rates, higher than that of the 2008 financial crisis.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Yemen is particularly vulnerable among Middle Eastern countries as it imports around <\/span>40 percent<\/span><\/a> of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. According to residents, some merchants have also raised prices following the increased demand from Yemenis.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Due to limited funding from international donors, the WFP has already been forced to ration food supplies across Yemen, in a move it has described as to \u201ctake food from the hungry to feed the starving.\u201d As a result, it has cut food for 8 million people out of the 13 million it provided food before prior to January 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Despite these rations, most Yemenis depend on humanitarian aid just to survive. In the last three months of 2021, those who experienced food insecurity or shortages <\/span>jumped<\/span><\/a> from 15 million to 16 million. Thus, a prolonged war in Ukraine would exacerbate Yemen\u2019s humanitarian crisis, and this is a heightened risk as ceasefire talks have faltered and Moscow looks set to move into the Ukrainian capital Kiev, meaning that the conflict could continue for the foreseeable future.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Meanwhile, the two Gulf states involved in Yemen\u2019s war, namely Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have strengthened ties with Moscow. This is particularly true of Abu Dhabi, which has sought to capitalize upon Moscow\u2019s growing expansion in the wider region, to bolster its own geopolitical clout.<\/span><\/p>\nHumanitarian consequences<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n
The UAE\u2019s interests<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n