{"id":6552,"date":"2023-11-06T10:51:17","date_gmt":"2023-11-06T10:51:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mokhacenter.org\/?p=6552"},"modified":"2024-09-04T11:43:27","modified_gmt":"2024-09-04T11:43:27","slug":"the-limits-of-yemens-benefit-from-de-escalation-policies-in-the-region","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mokhacenter.org\/en\/the-limits-of-yemens-benefit-from-de-escalation-policies-in-the-region\/","title":{"rendered":"The Limits of Yemen\u2019s Benefit From De-Escalation Policies in the Region"},"content":{"rendered":"

Abstract\u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n

For more than eight years, Yemen has been caught in the grip of a brutal conflict, marking it as one of the most complex wars of our time, which involves both internal disputes among Yemeni factions and external tensions involving powerful regional players. Much of the conflict\u2019s origin can be traced back to the ties between the Houthi group and the Iranian regime, particularly their activities targeting the borders and security of Saudi Arabia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Throughout the eight years, the war has been closely intertwined with the regional dynamics, particularly the escalations involving Iran on one side and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on the other. Additionally, the conflict has been influenced by shifting alliances and polarizations, notably between Qatar and Turkey on one side and various Gulf nations along with Egypt on the other.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, in a departure from the preceding decades, the past three years have shown a notable trend toward mutual de-escalation among the active regional players. This shift has had significant implications, leading to a reduction in the severity of crises across the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

This paper will discuss the impact of these de-escalation efforts on Yemen, examining the extent to which Yemen has benefited from such policies and exploring the factors that may limit its benefits. It also explores the concept of regional de-escalation, defining it as the collective steps and actions taken by regional actors to alleviate tensions and polarization, resolve crises and reduce conflict levels in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

First: Two Decades of Escalation:<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n
    \n
  1. Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen have perceived the Arab Gulf States\u2019 and Iran\u2019s expanding influence and power projection as an existential threat. This heightened Iran\u2019s role as a central factor in regional conflicts and exacerbated polarization and tension. This influence manifested in ongoing conflicts within nations already grappling with instability.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. There was regional polarization, which stemmed from differing stances toward the demands for change brought about by the Arab Spring revolutions several years ago. This polarization triggered additional crises, notably exemplified by the Qatar-Gulf crisis, a multifaceted diplomatic, economic and political rift that unfolded in June 2017. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt severed ties with Qatar, with ripple effects reaching entities, like Yemen\u2019s legitimate government<\/span>1<\/span>. Additionally, this polarization strained relations between Turkey and several Gulf nations and Egypt, mirroring the rift with Qatar.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. The policies pursued by former U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s administration toward Iran, including the withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and subsequent imposition of sanctions, heightened tensions in the Arabian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. This period saw what was dubbed as a \u201cship war,\u201d involving Iran, Israel and other parties.<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. The normalization of relations with Israel by several Arab countries further deepened divisions and tensions in the region. This sparked controversy and exacerbated existing fault lines.<\/span><\/li>\n
  5. Ongoing armed conflicts in nations such as Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen and Sudan, compounded by the involvement of influential regional actors in these conflicts, contributed to regional instability and heightened tensions.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The escalation policies significantly impacted the Yemeni crisis, driven by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states\u2019 concerns regarding the Houthi group\u2019s ties to the Iranian regime and its perceived threat to the southern border of the Kingdom. In response to this perceived threat, the Gulf states initiated military intervention on March 26, 2015, which continues to this day. During the same period, Iran escalated its political, media and military support for the Houthi group, effectively transforming the conflict in Yemen into a \u201cproxy war.\u201d The heightened tensions between regional powers over the Yemeni conflict served as a pretext for mobilization and contributed to its complexity and protracted nature, leading to its continuation.<\/span><\/p>\n

    What\u2019s more, the polarization that emerged between Qatar, several Gulf states and Egypt since 2017 further complicated the Yemeni conflict. Qatar\u2019s expulsion from the Arab Coalition supporting Yemeni legitimacy<\/span>2<\/span>, along with the withdrawal of Gulf State media networks, which had been active and influential in Yemen, led to mutual propaganda campaigns. These countries diverted their support to opposing parties in the crisis, undermining the cohesion of the Arab Coalition and impeding the legitimate government\u2019s efforts to liberate Sana\u2019a and restore stability to Yemen.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Second: De-Escalation Policies:<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n

    Since 2021, there has been a noticeable shift among active countries in the region toward reducing escalation and mitigating polarization. This shift can be attributed to both internal factors within these countries, as well as broader regional and international transformations. Key factors include:<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. The installation of U.S. President Joe Biden and the adoption of policies differ from those of his predecessor. These policies, often incongruent with the interests and orientations of regional countries, prompted a reassessment of regional policies toward dialogue and reconciliation.<\/span><\/li>\n
    2. The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict and its global repercussions, particularly on energy and food security, have placed significant pressure on regional actors amidst polarizations involving the United States, Western countries, Russia and China.<\/span><\/li>\n
    3. The profound economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting all countries in the region, has further necessitated a reevaluation of policies and priorities.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      In response to these transformations, active countries in the region have begun to adopt new policies aimed at reducing tension and conflict, steering toward a path of reconciliation. Over the past three years, notable steps toward a rapprochement and de-escalation have been observed, including:<\/span><\/p>\n