{"id":5999,"date":"2021-07-10T12:56:13","date_gmt":"2021-07-10T12:56:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mokhacenter.org\/?p=5999"},"modified":"2024-11-12T10:58:38","modified_gmt":"2024-11-12T10:58:38","slug":"will-the-un-envoy-succeed-in-achieving-a-new-breakthrough-in-the-yemeni-file","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mokhacenter.org\/en\/will-the-un-envoy-succeed-in-achieving-a-new-breakthrough-in-the-yemeni-file\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the UN envoy succeed in achieving a new breakthrough in the Yemeni file?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #2088c9;\"><b>Introduction:<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The visit of Martin Griffiths, the United Nations envoy to Yemen, to Sana\u2019a, comes nearly a year after his previous visit. The Houthi Insurgency refused to meet him after he was appointed as Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. This visit coincides with international and regional efforts that seek to achieve progress in Yemen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since The UN envoy\u2019s designation on February 14, 2018, he has been leading unremitting efforts to achieve a solution to the Yemeni crisis; his top priority is to address the humanitarian crisis, open air and sea lines, achieve a ceasefire and revitalise the political process.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Regional and U.S. efforts have been supportive of Griffiths\u2019 efforts through:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meeting of the Omani Foreign Minister with his Yemeni counterpart.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Visit of the Omani delegation to Sana\u2019a.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Kuwaiti Foreign Minister\u2019s visit to President Hadi.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Contacts of the U.S. Secretary of State with his Omani counterpart.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Contacts of the U.S. Secretary of Defense with the Saudi Crown Prince.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Visits of the U.S. envoy to Yemen to Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE and Jordan.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Griffiths\u2019 efforts, the factors of his success and failure, and the future of the Yemeni crisis under these diplomatic moves remain in question.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #2088c9;\"><b>Prominent visits of the UN envoy:<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><b>No<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Place<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Date<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Figures<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Topics<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Riyadh\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">March 2018<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Yemeni President, Vice President, Prime Minister and Head of the Islah Party<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arrangement of an inclusive political process.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Exploratory visit after his appointment.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sana\u2019a\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">March 2018<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Houthi Insurgency officials and leaders of GPC in Sana\u2019a.<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Exploratory visit to Sana\u2019a after his appointment.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hodeida<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">November 2018<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Acting Governor of Hodeida, appointed by the Houthi Insurgency<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">His first visit to Hodeida, where he discussed the arrangements for the port of Hodeida, the peace process in Yemen and the arrangement for the Sweden negotiations.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Muscat<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">July 2019<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Omani Foreign Minister<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As part of his international tour to Russia, the UAE and Oman.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sana\u2019a<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">December 2019<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Abdul-Malik al-Houthi and<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mahdi al-Mashat<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Discussion of the prisoners\u2019 and detainees\u2019 files.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sana\u2019a<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">March 2020<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Houthi Insurgency officials<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The military escalation and the establishment of the air bridge to transport patients from Sana\u2019a International Airport.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Marib<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">March 2020<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The governor of Marib and members of the local authority<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reviewing the humanitarian situation in Marib.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Riyadh\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">August 2020\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vice President and Head of Government, the Saudi ambassador to Yemen<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Joint Declaration.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Riyadh<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">September 2020<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Speaker of the Yemeni Parliament, the Yemeni Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Saudi Deputy Minister of Defense<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Joint Declaration.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Military escalation in Marib.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Aden\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">January 2021<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prime Minister, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Yemen and Governor of Aden<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Discussing the path of a comprehensive political solution and reviewing Aden airport incident.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tehran<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">February 2021<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iranian Foreign Minister<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A comprehensive ceasefire in Yemen, urgent humanitarian procedures and the resumption of the political process.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Muscat\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">June 2020<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Omani Foreign Minister<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Discussion of the Joint Declaration.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Muscat<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">October 2020<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Omani Foreign Minister and Houthi Insurgency Spokesperson<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Draft of Joint Declaration.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Muscat<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">May 2021<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Muhammad Abdul Salam and Omani officials<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Opening of the Sana\u2019a airport and port of Hodeida and discussing a ceasefire.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sana\u2019a\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">June 2021<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Abdul-Malik al-Houthi<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A cease-fire and the initiation of the political process.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #2088c9;\"><b>\u00a0Evaluation of the UN envoy\u2019s achievements:<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It seems that Griffiths showed intense diplomatic activity and movement compared to his predecessors, and the results of this activity are:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He obtained the international support and endorsement that his predecessors did not.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He decided to move from the goal of a comprehensive solution to humanitarian solutions as a prelude to a comprehensive solution, and he did not build on the efforts of his predecessor, in addition to the results of the Kuwait negotiations.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">His visits to Russia, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Jordan.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite his visits to a number of Yemeni governorates such as Sana\u2019a, Aden, and Hodeida, Taiz and Marib did not receive as much attention as Hodeida did.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">His great optimism about the visits and negotiations, except for the previous point.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He presented some proposals, in which he was accused of violating the Yemeni peoples\u2019 rights. This procedure made him appear to be biased toward the Houthi Insurgency, and this may explain the reasons of President Hadi\u2019s refusal to meet with him more than once.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">His repeated attempts to bring the Houthi Insurgency closer to negotiations, and this was evident through pressure to remove them from the terrorism list. However, the Houthi Insurgency does not see him as a neutral mediator.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He partially succeeded in stopping the battle of Hodeida, which occurred in favor of the Houthi Insurgency (Ansar Allah), and implementing the prisoner and detainees deal.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #2088c9;\"><b>Factors of his success:\u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The UN envoy tried to achieve a breakthrough in the Yemeni file and has already been able, so far, to make some progress in the Stockholm Agreement. He can be more successful due to the following factors:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The international community support in addition to the regional support for his efforts from Saudi Arabia and Oman.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The success in Stockholm was partly due to its compatibility with the international determination on one hand, and the international pressures exerted on Saudi Arabia in regional files, on the other, which stopped the battle of Hodeida.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Griffiths\u2019 efforts have direct support and supervision.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #2088c9;\"><b>Factors of failure:<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He did not use the capabilities of the Security Council to put pressure on the Houthi Insurgency, whom he described in his recent briefing as \u201cobstructing\u201d the peace process in Yemen by continuing their attack on Marib.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #2088c9;\"><b>Potential Scenarios:<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UN envoy Martin Griffiths seeks to accomplish his final attempt through his visit to Sana\u2019a, which may result in one of these scenarios:<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #2088c9;\"><b>Scenario One: Complete Failure<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This scenario predicts Griffiths\u2019 failure to achieve any new progress for the following reasons:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> His inability to provide anything despite previous efforts supported by the UN, international and regional communities, which makes him appear more pessimistic than before.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Prolongation of the Houthi Insurgency (Ansar Allah) escalation in Marib, as their late successful attempt of bombing the gas station.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #2088c9;\"><b>Scenario Two: Complete Success<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This scenario is expected to be fully successful based on:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The pressures exerted by the international and regional communities, which may compel the Houthi Insurgency (Ansar Allah) to accept any cease-fire settlement.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #2088c9;\"><b>Scenario Three: Partial Success<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">International efforts, including Griffiths\u2019 efforts, can achieve a partial breakthrough based on the following indicators:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The UN envoy and the U.S. State Department hold the Houthi Insurgency responsible for the failure of the previous negotiations, and this may represent a means of pressure, but it will not amount to achieving a comprehensive solution.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0The intensification of the activities of the Omani Foreign Ministry, which is an acceptable mediator for the Houthi Insurgency, facilitated the political movements of their delegation, and this, in turn, could cause a breakthrough in the humanitarian file.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">International pressures on the countries of the Coalition may compel them to accept any settlement to get out of the international embarrassment.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Failure of the Houthi Insurgency in Marib.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #2088c9;\"><b>The Likelihood of scenarios:<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It appears that the partial-success scenario in some files is the likely scenario, whether at the end of the Griffiths period or after, but, if these conditions are met:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Exerting strong international and regional pressure on the Houthi Insurgency (Ansar Allah).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Houthi Insurgency\u2019s realisation that sealing Griffiths\u2019 record with an achievement ensures that they will not be held fully responsible for what is happening in Yemen.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Progress in international negotiations for Iran regarding the nuclear file; hence Iran is invested in the nuclear energy before regional issues, to achieve the greatest results in the negotiations Iran might withdraw its\u2019 interests in Yemen.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #2088c9;\"><b>Conclusion:<\/b><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">International efforts may be able to achieve a new breakthrough on the Yemeni issue, and any partial success depends on the extent of the progress in the political process. If this success is achieved, the Yemeni issue will be more internationalized, and the coalition might lose some of its legitimacy in interfering in the Yemeni file. Moreover, this will open new doors for the Houthi Insurgency in the international community at the expense of the Yemeni cause and the security of the region.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<div class=\"tie-center-button\"><a href=\"http:\/\/Will%20the%20UN%20envoy%20succeed%20in%20achieving%20a%20new%20breakthrough%20in%20the%20Yemeni%20file?\" class=\"shortc-button medium button\"> download <\/a><\/div>\n<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Introduction: The visit of Martin Griffiths, the United Nations envoy to Yemen, to Sana\u2019a, comes nearly a year after his previous visit. The Houthi Insurgency refused to meet him after he was appointed as Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. This visit coincides with international and regional efforts that seek to achieve &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":6139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36,70,60],"tags":[671,670,668,669],"class_list":["post-5999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics","category-archives","category-position-evaluation","tag-ceasefire-humanitarian-solutions","tag-international-regional-efforts","tag-un-envoy-martin-griffiths","tag-yemeni-crisis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Will the UN envoy succeed in achieving a new breakthrough in the Yemeni file?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"&nbsp; Introduction: The visit of Martin Griffiths, the United Nations envoy to Yemen, to Sana\u2019a, comes nearly a year after his previous visit. 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