The Power of Geography:  How the Eastern Governorates Reshaped the Rules of the Game in Yemen

Geopolitics remains one of the key forces driving the conflict in Yemen, with competition over resources, borders, and strategic locations shaping the priorities of political and military actors. In recent developments, the eastern governorates—Hadramawt, Shabwa, al-Mahra, and Socotra—have emerged as a pivotal component of Yemen’s national equation. Their strategic location, natural resources, and extensive coastline have placed them at the center of shifting local and regional power balances, influencing changes on the battlefield and contributing to the erosion of parallel structures operating outside the state.

These shifts accelerated in December 2025, when forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) took control of Hadramawt and al-Mahra, completing their expansion across the eastern governorates. This escalation marked a significant turning point in both local and regional dynamics, the implications of which continue to unfold and may further evolve in the period ahead.

This paper explores the strategic importance of Yemen’s eastern governorates, examines the motivations of the primary actors involved, and assesses the positions of regional and international stakeholders. It also considers the potential trajectories of the conflict at the local and regional levels, as well as the key factors shaping its impact on the future of the Yemeni state.