Conflict and Stability in Hadramawt: The Role of Local and Regional Actors and Future Scenarios

Executive Summary

This study examines the position of Hadramawt Governorate within Yemen’s political and military equation, based on the premise that the governorate is no longer merely an arena of competition among rival forces, but has become a factor capable of shaping the future structure of the Yemeni state. The paper begins by examining Hadramawt’s importance in the strategies of the main actors: its sovereign and economic significance to the internationally recognized government; its role as an economic pillar without which the separatist state project pursued by the Southern Transitional Council, with clear Emirati backing, cannot be completed; and its direct importance to Saudi national security given the kingdom’s extensive border with the governorate.

The first section examines the background and broader context, explaining how Hadramawt was divided into two distinct geographic areas of influence and regional patronage before January 2026. It also traces the emergence of a local current opposed to subordination to traditional centers of power and calling for self-rule, while critically examining the ambiguity of this demand and its lack of a clearly defined political framework to date. The paper then examines the indicators of tension that preceded the Southern Transitional Council’s military advance into Hadramawt, interpreting the escalation as a reflection of broader tensions between competing regional agendas rather than simply a local conflict.

The second section addresses what the study describes as the strategic turning point: the Southern Transitional Council’s military defeat and withdrawal from Hadramawt. It examines the scale of its military and political losses, the factors behind the rapid collapse of its forces, and the role of tribal mobilization in providing social and political backing for the decision to confront the council militarily. The third section examines the dynamics of the transitional phase that followed the withdrawal, from the struggle to secure key access points and Hadramawt’s strategic depth to the consolidation of local forces, the Southern Transitional Council’s loss of political initiative following its announcement of dissolution, and the emergence of the Nation’s Shield Forces as a new balancing force.

The fourth section provides a detailed map of the main domestic and external actors shaping the Hadramawt landscape. It identifies the main Hadrami political entities, examines their respective roles and areas of convergence, and analyzes the complex position of the Hadrami Elite Forces and the Barshid Brigade. It also examines the evolving role of regional actors, particularly the growing Saudi presence and the decline of Emirati influence.

The fifth section examines the implications of these developments for Yemen’s wider political landscape. Among the most significant are the erosion of the Southern Transitional Council’s claim to be the sole representative of the south, the strengthening of the concept of local empowerment, and the growing prominence of the eastern governorates as a distinct political space alongside the traditional north-south framework.

The sixth and final section presents three possible scenarios for the future of Hadramawt, assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each. It identifies the empowerment of Hadramawt as a region within the Yemeni state as the most likely scenario, based on several factors: the shift in Saudi policy toward the Southern Transitional Council and Emirati support for the separatist project, the growing political maturity of Hadrami forces, and the exposure of the Southern Transitional Council’s limited grassroots base in the governorate.

The study concludes that Hadramawt is gradually moving toward a form of administrative autonomy within the framework of the Yemeni state. This trajectory could alter the balance of power across Yemen and make Hadramawt a major factor in shaping the country’s future political structure. At the same time, it leaves an open question regarding the ideological implications of the growing presence of the Nation’s Shield Forces, which include a significant Salafi current, within a social environment traditionally characterized by a predominantly Sufi religious orientation.